Unless you are British or Argentine, it is hard to grasp the raw emotion that surrounds the Falkland Islands question, the kind of feeling that erupted during the World Cup match between Argentina and England. The two nations have not been the same since 1982, when Argentina launched a surprise invasion of the British overseas territory, along with the neighboring island of South Georgia, which had been virtually unguarded for decades. At the time, the Argentine military dictatorship, known as the National Reorganization Process, ordered the invasion because its popularity had collapsed. What better way to unite the people behind the government than a foreign adventure?
Buenos Aires underestimated Margaret Thatcher. She also saw an opportunity to rally British public opinion behind her own unpopular government through decisive action and the restoration of national pride. The British task force was impressive, and the Falklands War proved that in 1982 Britain could still act alone against its enemies, something we can no longer do today. The campaign took place eight thousand miles from the United Kingdom and came at a heavy cost in lives and equipment.
The Argentines, especially their air force and navy, fought with great courage. They managed to sink several Royal Navy ships and badly damage many others. The land campaign was brutally difficult, fought in harsh weather against a well-entrenched enemy. Yet British superiority in training and military skill became clear in a series of mountain battles to retake Port Stanley, the capital of the islands.
Argentina surrendered on June 14, 1982, seventy-four days after its initial attack. Since then, the question has lingered: will Argentina try to retake the Falklands again? Successive Argentine presidents have pressed their nation’s claim, while successive British prime ministers have stated that any attack will be met with force. But the real question is whether Argentina can actually invade the Falklands, and whether Britain can actually take them back.
For Argentina to succeed in invading the Falklands today, it needs three things: air superiority over the islands, naval superiority in the surrounding waters, and the means to transport and land an invasion force successfully. In 1982, the first condition did not matter. The Falklands contained no military aircraft that could attack the approaching Argentine fleet. Today, the situation is completely different.
RAF Mount Pleasant, built after the war, sits thirty-five miles southwest of Port Stanley and houses a permanent squadron of four Eurofighter Typhoons. These highly capable jets would be used against any invasion force, seizing control of the airspace above the islands and attacking Argentine ships as they approached the area. In 1982, Argentina possessed a huge number of fighter jets and bombers that were later used to try to intercept British landings during the recapture. The Argentine Air Force, operating from bases four hundred miles away on the mainland, had about forty-five Skyhawks, between thirty and thirty-five Israeli-built IAI Daggers, up to twenty Mirage IIIs, and up to ten English Electric Canberra bombers.
That is not the case today. The only modern jets in the Argentine Air Force capable of reaching the Falklands to challenge the RAF in a fight for air superiority are six F-16 multirole fighters bought secondhand from Denmark, with twelve more on order. The Argentine F-16s face several problems. First, British ground radars in the Falklands can see farther than the radar systems built into the F-16s.
The British will therefore spot the Argentine jets first, giving them time to react. The airbase is also defended by a battery of highly modern Sky Sabre surface-to-air missiles operated by the Royal Artillery. Finally, the four RAF Typhoons will outmatch the much older F-16s. It is highly doubtful that Argentina can achieve local air superiority.
Could the Argentine navy help? In 1982, Argentina operated a highly effective naval air arm that inflicted serious damage on British ships. Super Etendard fighter-bombers armed with Exocet anti-ship missiles flew from bases in Argentina. But the Super Etendard is not primarily designed for direct air combat, certainly not by the Argentines, who use it as an anti-ship platform.
Remarkably, in 2026, Argentina still operates Super Etendards in the same role, although its entire fleet of around fifteen aircraft is currently grounded due to a lack of spare parts. Ironically, Argentina usually obtains spare parts from the United Kingdom. In 1982, the Argentine navy also possessed an old British-built World War II-era aircraft carrier, the Veinticinco de Mayo. Argentina had a full naval air squadron of eight A-4Q Skyhawks onboard, but that no longer exists.
By 2026, Argentina will have no aircraft carriers at all. So what about local naval superiority? In this regard, Argentina could theoretically outmatch the current Royal Navy assets stationed around the Falklands by 2026, mirroring the situation of 1982. Back then, the Royal Navy patrol ship HMS Endurance was the only British naval vessel in the South Atlantic, and she stayed out of the ensuing fight.
Today, the Royal Navy has two ships in the region. One is the Falkland Islands Patrol Guard Ship, based at Mare Harbour, a naval facility five miles from RAF Mount Pleasant. That ship is HMS Medway, a River-class offshore patrol vessel of two thousand tons, essentially a sloop. However, it cannot really be categorized as a light warship given its armament, which consists of a single thirty-millimeter cannon, two general purpose machine guns, and two .
50 caliber Browning machine guns. It carries no missiles at all. The other vessel is the patrol ship HMS Protector, which is armed with four . 50 caliber machine guns and five general purpose machine guns.
These ships would stay well away from the Argentine destroyers and frigates deployed to protect any landing force. That leaves Argentina’s final problem: actually moving an army and landing it in the Falklands. In 1982, the Argentine fleet was impressive. It included one aircraft carrier, the World War II-era light cruiser General Belgrano, two modern Type 42 destroyers of the same class used by the Royal Navy, four older American World War II-era Sumner and Gearing-class destroyers, three Drummond-class corvettes, and two diesel-electric submarines.
There was also a large amphibious landing ship and icebreaker, the ARA Almirante Irizar, plus a supply ship, along with several survey, transport, and patrol vessels. Around twenty helicopters operated with the fleet for supply, anti-submarine warfare, search and rescue, and troop landing. In 2026, the Argentine navy presents an entirely different picture. Its capabilities have shrunk to a point of having no aircraft carriers and no operational submarines.
Its surface fleet is reduced to just three destroyers and six frigates, a single amphibious support ship, the old icebreaker Almirante Irizar still in service, one oiler, and one supply ship. If the Argentine air force fails to destroy the RAF Typhoons at Mount Pleasant, it is hard to imagine how any invasion force could approach the islands without being attacked and badly damaged by British aircraft. Even if they managed to land troops, those ships would face the same kind of attacks that the Argentine air force launched against British landings in 1982. But let us assume, for the sake of argument, that Argentina manages to break through British air defenses and land troops in the Falklands, as happened in 1982.
The objective would be to seize Port Stanley, the main settlement in the Falklands, along with the military bases and airfield around it. Unlike 1982, however, the British have a significant military force to defend these sites, numbering up to fifteen hundred personnel. In July 2026, the British garrison consists of a regular infantry company, drawn from an infantry battalion rotating through the Falklands, in this case from the 5th Battalion, The Rifles, as well as a squadron of Royal Engineers and a squadron of the Royal Logistic Corps. In addition, the Falkland Islands Defence Force, a reserve unit of the British Army, well equipped and locally recruited, has around forty highly trained personnel operating as light infantry.
Taking into account the combat troops, including members of the Royal Engineers and Royal Logistic Corps, along with some Royal Artillery personnel, the total would form at least four companies of riflemen. These could be reinforced by other personnel from support units based at Mount Pleasant and elsewhere. That is far more than the Argentines faced in 1982. This force could hold out for a long time until reinforcements arrived, which would take the form of another British task force.
But here we might have a problem. Any long-term plan to repel an Argentine incursion would require a significant British naval response, and here things could become difficult for London. As I have outlined in many recent videos, the Royal Navy, once a global superpower, has been drastically reduced by successive governments, until it is now a tiny fraction of what it was in 1982. In that year, for example, the full naval force of the task force to recapture the Falklands consisted of two aircraft carriers, eight destroyers, fifteen frigates, two landing ships, six submarines, and twenty-two Royal Fleet Auxiliary support ships.
The total air contingent was thirty-eight Sea Harriers and RAF Harrier GR3s, plus 163 helicopters from the Royal Navy, RAF, Army Air Corps, and Royal Marines. The situation for the Argentines today is much more equal. Forming even a much smaller British task force would be extremely challenging in 2026. We have two aircraft carriers, but they are mechanically unreliable.
I believe that if one were sent, it would likely break down before reaching the South Atlantic. Protecting it from air and missile attack would be extremely difficult because we have virtually no working escort ships. Remember, in 1982 we managed to send eight destroyers and fifteen frigates south to escort those two carriers while still maintaining our global Royal Navy commitments. Today we have six destroyers and five aging frigates, and these ships seem to spend most of their time in maintenance.
A full air group of twenty-four F-35B Lightnings, plus fourteen helicopters, would be available on the carrier, and of course Royal Fleet Auxiliary ships would be sent with additional helicopters. We would not need to worry about an Argentine submarine attack, since Argentina currently has no operational submarines. But neither does Britain, because all of our hunter-killer submarines are currently in the dockyard for maintenance. Moving task force troops south and landing them in the Falklands would require specialized amphibious warfare ships.
Both of our landing platform docks have recently been decommissioned and are scheduled to be sold off or scrapped, leaving three Bay-class landing ships of the Royal Fleet Auxiliary to do the job. But I must stress that any British aircraft carrier will likely break down long before reaching the South Atlantic. Without the carrier and its integrated air group, there would be no point in attempting to retake the Falklands. There would be no air cover.
That would be a serious vulnerability for us. The F-35s onboard the carriers are also known to be highly sensitive aircraft requiring extensive refurbishment and maintenance, and I do not believe they would perform well in the harsh conditions of the South Atlantic. So, to be honest, any Argentine move against the Falklands today could probably be contained by the British forces already there. However, as we have seen, Argentina is expanding its military capabilities.
For example, I see that the only way Argentina could retake the Falklands militarily is to neutralize the RAF Typhoons at Mount Pleasant or disable their runway. Right now, Argentina has only six F-16s, but it will eventually have eighteen. The United States recently announced the sale of two KC-135 Stratotanker refueling aircraft to support Argentina’s two existing refueling aircraft. These facts should worry the Ministry of Defence in London.
Improved refueling capabilities would allow Argentine F-16s to stay in the air longer and conduct the sort of loitering and harassment activities that Russian aircraft carry out around UK airspace in Europe. Could a massive attack by eighteen F-16s against the Falklands successfully overcome the four Typhoons stationed there? That is a question in itself. Given the weakness of the British navy in the South Atlantic, and given that we have established Argentina currently enjoys naval superiority in the region, could such an air attack overwhelm the small British force, followed by a naval landing by the Argentine navy?
Argentina is currently negotiating the purchase of three new submarines, amphibious warships, and two multi-mission frigates, likely from France or Denmark. No well-equipped British warship or submarine is in the region. It does not seem entirely unlikely that Argentina could land troops in the Falklands in the future, perhaps the near future. That region is rich in oil and highly desirable to foreign nations because of the huge revenues it generates.
If the rejuvenated Argentine air force and navy managed to land troops in the Falklands, Britain would not be able to do much about it. As I have explained, the Royal Navy is currently too small, with ships too old or too unreliable, to send a second task force to liberate them. The only way to prevent any landing is to immediately strengthen British defenses in the region, especially the naval and air forces in the South Atlantic. But I do not expect that to happen soon.
If Argentina makes a move toward the Falklands, the naval situation appears to be in its favor. That is mainly because they know, as do you and I, and as does the world, how militarily weak Britain has become due to politicians deliberately neglecting national defense. These are all complex questions, and I would like to know your opinions on the matter in the comments below. If you enjoyed this video, please subscribe and share, and visit my audio book channel, War Stories with Mark Felton.
You can also support my channels via PayPal and Patreon, with details in the description box below. Thank you very much for watching.